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This guy built an HFT algorithm and made +$249,869 on Polymarket His bot trades 5-minute BTC Up/Down markets using a hybrid of passive market making, complete-set accumulation, and directional residual: 1. It uses BTC price movements to build Up + Down positions for less than $1 After the first...

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VALIX

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46,302 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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This guy built a market-making bot and made $355,245 on Polymarket His algorithm trades 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets using complete-set accumulation and inventory rebalancing: 1. Builds complete sets for less than $1 It continuously quotes Up and Down, adjusting its order prices as its fair probability estimates and the order book change Orders on both sides do not have to fill simultaneously. It can buy Up first and Down later It uses this repricing to build complete sets for less than $1. The average cost of a matched Up + Down pair is 96.73c, edge 3.27c 2. Retains a directional residual Approximately 81% of its inventory can be matched into Up + Down pairs. The remaining 19% is kept as a directional residual in line with its model’s signal Its Polymarket account: almach You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from accumulating Up and Down at different times, while the small unpaired remainder maintains directional exposure
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This guy built a market-making bot and made $355,245 on Polymarket His algorithm trades 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets using complete-set accumulation and inventory rebalancing: 1. Builds complete sets for less than $1 It continuously quotes Up and Down, adjusting its order prices as its fair probability estimates and the order book change Orders on both sides do not have to fill simultaneously. It can buy Up first and Down later It uses this repricing to build complete sets for less than $1. The average cost of a matched Up + Down pair is 96.73c, edge 3.27c 2. Retains a directional residual Approximately 81% of its inventory can be matched into Up + Down pairs. The remaining 19% is kept as a directional residual in line with its model’s signal Its Polymarket account: almach You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from accumulating Up and Down at different times, while the small unpaired remainder maintains directional exposure

VALIX

22,879 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $10 Result: +$262,402 His bot trades 15-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, volatility harvesting, and asynchronous complete-set accumulation: 1. It builds positions where Up + Down Buys Up at 42¢, then later buys Down at 53¢ > Complete set = 95¢ -> 5¢ gross edge 2. It leaves a directional residual on top of the paired inventory For example: > Buys 100 Up + 150 Down > 100 Up + 100 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Down maintain directional exposure Around 86% of all purchased shares are part of the paired position, while the remaining inventory acts as the directional layer of the strategy His Polymarket nickname: aswfadq1555 You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This guy’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 324 > Average trade: $10.51 > Win Rate: 50% The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from using volatility within 15-minute markets to asynchronously accumulate Up and Down for less than $1. The unmatched remainder is kept as directional exposure Using this strategy and his algorithm, this guy steadily grows his capital
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $10 Result: +$262,402 His bot trades 15-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, volatility harvesting, and asynchronous complete-set accumulation: 1. It builds positions where Up + Down Buys Up at 42¢, then later buys Down at 53¢ > Complete set = 95¢ -> 5¢ gross edge 2. It leaves a directional residual on top of the paired inventory For example: > Buys 100 Up + 150 Down > 100 Up + 100 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Down maintain directional exposure Around 86% of all purchased shares are part of the paired position, while the remaining inventory acts as the directional layer of the strategy His Polymarket nickname: aswfadq1555 You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This guy’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 324 > Average trade: $10.51 > Win Rate: 50% The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from using volatility within 15-minute markets to asynchronously accumulate Up and Down for less than $1. The unmatched remainder is kept as directional exposure Using this strategy and his algorithm, this guy steadily grows his capital

VALIX

135,222 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with a $50 average trade size Result: +$220,792 His bot trades 5-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of inventory rebalancing, dynamic hedging, and accumulating cheap complete sets: 1. It builds complete sets so that Up + Down costs less than $1 It uses limit orders to buy different sides during different phases of the underlying asset’s movement Average cost of a matched complete set: $0.9387. Edge = 6.13¢ 2. It leaves directional residual on top of the hedged inventory Part of the capital gets a structural edge through pairing, while the rest keeps exposure on the side the algorithm sees as stronger For example: 200 Up + 150 Down 150 Up + 150 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Up stay as a directional position You can build your own trading bot here: (Free trial available after registration) Stats: > Trades / active hour: 284 > Average trade: $49.8 > Win Rate: 50% His Polymarket nickname: hot-garbage This guy’s edge is built on two main layers: he turns most of his inventory into Up + Down < $1, while using the unmatched remainder as a directional position Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his PnL
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This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with a $50 average trade size Result: +$220,792 His bot trades 5-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of inventory rebalancing, dynamic hedging, and accumulating cheap complete sets: 1. It builds complete sets so that Up + Down costs less than $1 It uses limit orders to buy different sides during different phases of the underlying asset’s movement Average cost of a matched complete set: $0.9387. Edge = 6.13¢ 2. It leaves directional residual on top of the hedged inventory Part of the capital gets a structural edge through pairing, while the rest keeps exposure on the side the algorithm sees as stronger For example: 200 Up + 150 Down 150 Up + 150 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Up stay as a directional position You can build your own trading bot here: (Free trial available after registration) Stats: > Trades / active hour: 284 > Average trade: $49.8 > Win Rate: 50% His Polymarket nickname: hot-garbage This guy’s edge is built on two main layers: he turns most of his inventory into Up + Down < $1, while using the unmatched remainder as a directional position Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his PnL

VALIX

87,974 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $40 Result: +$223,542 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of passive market making, inventory rebalancing, and opportunistic complete-set formation: 1. It accumulates outcomes below its fair value It places BUY orders in advance and waits for them to get filled. The average price per share acquired is 46.6c 2. When the market moves, it turns part of the inventory into cheap complete sets If its Up orders get filled first and then the underlying reverses, making Down cheaper, it starts accumulating the opposite side In two-sided 5-minute markets, the median combined VWAP of both sides is around 94.8c 3. It keeps part of the inventory directional It doesn’t try to fully balance Up and Down. If it can buy a cheap hedge, part of the position turns into complete sets. If not, the original inventory remains directional His Polymarket nickname: PBot-6 You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This guy’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 46.11 > Average trade: $39.67 > Win Rate: 50% The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from consistently getting fills below its fair value and building arbitrage positions
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $40 Result: +$223,542 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of passive market making, inventory rebalancing, and opportunistic complete-set formation: 1. It accumulates outcomes below its fair value It places BUY orders in advance and waits for them to get filled. The average price per share acquired is 46.6c 2. When the market moves, it turns part of the inventory into cheap complete sets If its Up orders get filled first and then the underlying reverses, making Down cheaper, it starts accumulating the opposite side In two-sided 5-minute markets, the median combined VWAP of both sides is around 94.8c 3. It keeps part of the inventory directional It doesn’t try to fully balance Up and Down. If it can buy a cheap hedge, part of the position turns into complete sets. If not, the original inventory remains directional His Polymarket nickname: PBot-6 You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This guy’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 46.11 > Average trade: $39.67 > Win Rate: 50% The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from consistently getting fills below its fair value and building arbitrage positions

VALIX

99,339 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket and made +$129,680 The bot trades 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets using complete-set accumulation and a directional residual: 1. Continuously accumulates both sides of each market It places BUY limit orders on both Up and Down and waits for BTC movements to change the outcome prices When one side becomes cheaper, the bot gets fills on that side. As the market reprices, it starts buying the opposite outcome at prices that keep the combined cost of Up and Down below $1 The weighted average cost of its complete sets is 98.43c, giving it an edge of 1.57c 2. Keeps part of the position directional After pairing, about 21.3% of the position value remains as unbalanced inventory. It chooses which outcome to hold based on its model’s signal Its Polymarket account: nagi777 Build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The bot’s main edge comes from two layers: most of its inventory is paired into complete sets costing less than $1, while the remainder is kept as a controlled directional residual
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This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket and made +$129,680 The bot trades 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets using complete-set accumulation and a directional residual: 1. Continuously accumulates both sides of each market It places BUY limit orders on both Up and Down and waits for BTC movements to change the outcome prices When one side becomes cheaper, the bot gets fills on that side. As the market reprices, it starts buying the opposite outcome at prices that keep the combined cost of Up and Down below $1 The weighted average cost of its complete sets is 98.43c, giving it an edge of 1.57c 2. Keeps part of the position directional After pairing, about 21.3% of the position value remains as unbalanced inventory. It chooses which outcome to hold based on its model’s signal Its Polymarket account: nagi777 Build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The bot’s main edge comes from two layers: most of its inventory is paired into complete sets costing less than $1, while the remainder is kept as a controlled directional residual

VALIX

52,479 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $38.62 Result: +$489,494 The bot trades 5 minute BTC and ETH Up/Down markets using two-sided accumulation, complete sets, and a directional residual: 1. Starts accumulating both sides almost immediately The bot first buys one side and begins buying the opposite outcome almost immediately The median delay between its first Up and Down purchases is 7.5 seconds It then continues accumulating both sides as prices change within the market 2. Builds complete sets below $1 The main goal of the paired inventory is to achieve: VWAP(Up) + VWAP(Down) < $1 Its average combined VWAP is 97.93c, giving it an edge of 2.07c 3. Keeps a directional residual on top of the hedge The bot does not try to maintain a 1:1 balance between Up and Down In paired markets, the median ratio between the larger and smaller sides of its inventory is 1.44× If its fair probability leans more strongly toward Up or Down, the algorithm increases its inventory on that side while keeping the opposite outcome as a hedge leg Its Polymarket account: x-MoneyForWhiskas The bot’s main edge comes from combining complete sets with directional skew: the core position is hedged through Up + Down below $1, while additional inventory remains on the side its model considers underpriced
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $38.62 Result: +$489,494 The bot trades 5 minute BTC and ETH Up/Down markets using two-sided accumulation, complete sets, and a directional residual: 1. Starts accumulating both sides almost immediately The bot first buys one side and begins buying the opposite outcome almost immediately The median delay between its first Up and Down purchases is 7.5 seconds It then continues accumulating both sides as prices change within the market 2. Builds complete sets below $1 The main goal of the paired inventory is to achieve: VWAP(Up) + VWAP(Down) < $1 Its average combined VWAP is 97.93c, giving it an edge of 2.07c 3. Keeps a directional residual on top of the hedge The bot does not try to maintain a 1:1 balance between Up and Down In paired markets, the median ratio between the larger and smaller sides of its inventory is 1.44× If its fair probability leans more strongly toward Up or Down, the algorithm increases its inventory on that side while keeping the opposite outcome as a hedge leg Its Polymarket account: x-MoneyForWhiskas The bot’s main edge comes from combining complete sets with directional skew: the core position is hedged through Up + Down below $1, while additional inventory remains on the side its model considers underpriced

VALIX

142,654 görüntüleme • 29 gün önce

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $9 Result: +$108,248 I analyzed its trades and found that its core strategy is based on dynamically accumulating both outcomes at different points throughout 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets It uses price swings within each market to buy each outcome when it becomes cheaper Here’s what that looks like in practice: > BTC declines sharply > Up falls to 42c, and the bot starts accumulating it > Then BTC rebounds > Down becomes cheaper, and the algorithm buys it at 55c Up + Down = 97c -> 3c edge These paired positions have an average edge of 2.7% But it does not always keep Up and Down perfectly balanced at a 1:1 ratio On top of its paired inventory, the algorithm often keeps a directional residual, which adds extra upside if that outcome wins Its Polymarket account: Jarvisen You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) Stats: > Trades per active hour: 680 > Average trade size: $9.11 > Win rate: 69% The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from volatility harvesting: it alternates between accumulating Up and Down, building paired inventory with a combined cost below $1 while keeping a small directional skew toward the cheaper side
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This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $9 Result: +$108,248 I analyzed its trades and found that its core strategy is based on dynamically accumulating both outcomes at different points throughout 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets It uses price swings within each market to buy each outcome when it becomes cheaper Here’s what that looks like in practice: > BTC declines sharply > Up falls to 42c, and the bot starts accumulating it > Then BTC rebounds > Down becomes cheaper, and the algorithm buys it at 55c Up + Down = 97c -> 3c edge These paired positions have an average edge of 2.7% But it does not always keep Up and Down perfectly balanced at a 1:1 ratio On top of its paired inventory, the algorithm often keeps a directional residual, which adds extra upside if that outcome wins Its Polymarket account: Jarvisen You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) Stats: > Trades per active hour: 680 > Average trade size: $9.11 > Win rate: 69% The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from volatility harvesting: it alternates between accumulating Up and Down, building paired inventory with a combined cost below $1 while keeping a small directional skew toward the cheaper side

VALIX

22,562 görüntüleme • 26 gün önce

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $72.40 Result: +$196,060 His algorithm trades BTC and ETH markets using directional trading, market making, and dynamic inventory management: 1. Builds a position gradually and manages it as prices change It buys Up or Down in small amounts, then adjusts its position size as the underlying asset’s price changes If the outcome it bought rises in price, it can sell part of its inventory and hold the rest if it still considers that outcome undervalued 2. Uses the opposite side as a hedge or to build complete sets It bought both sides in 71.6% of markets For example: > Up = 32c > Down = 67c > Up + Down = 99c That pair provides a 1c edge regardless of the result It also buys the opposite outcome to hedge or reverse its position 3. Keeps part of its inventory directional If it holds different numbers of shares on each side, the unpaired portion stays open For example: > 200 Up > 130 Down 130 Up + 130 Down form a neutral position. The remaining 70 Up shares stay directional Its Polymarket account: 0xdb5 The algorithm’s main edge comes from a combination of complete sets, hedging, and a directional residual
0:30

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $72.40 Result: +$196,060 His algorithm trades BTC and ETH markets using directional trading, market making, and dynamic inventory management: 1. Builds a position gradually and manages it as prices change It buys Up or Down in small amounts, then adjusts its position size as the underlying asset’s price changes If the outcome it bought rises in price, it can sell part of its inventory and hold the rest if it still considers that outcome undervalued 2. Uses the opposite side as a hedge or to build complete sets It bought both sides in 71.6% of markets For example: > Up = 32c > Down = 67c > Up + Down = 99c That pair provides a 1c edge regardless of the result It also buys the opposite outcome to hedge or reverse its position 3. Keeps part of its inventory directional If it holds different numbers of shares on each side, the unpaired portion stays open For example: > 200 Up > 130 Down 130 Up + 130 Down form a neutral position. The remaining 70 Up shares stay directional Its Polymarket account: 0xdb5 The algorithm’s main edge comes from a combination of complete sets, hedging, and a directional residual

VALIX

24,517 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce

This guy built an asynchronous complete-set bot and made +$111,945 on Polymarket with a 50% win rate I analyzed its trades and found that its main strategy is based on gradually accumulating both sides of the same market In 88.76% of markets, it bought both Up and Down It looks something like this: > First, the bot accumulates one side > After the underlying asset moves, it starts buying the opposite outcome > Then it switches between both sides several times as the market reprices > This way, it tries to build a position where Up + Down < $1 The average cost of these complete sets is 98.69c, which gives an edge of about 1.31c But this is not pure arbitrage. Part of its inventory remains directional, with the side determined by its model’s signal Its Polymarket nickname: norm1e69 The main edge of this trading bot comes from switching between both outcomes to build complete sets below $1, while keeping the unpaired inventory as a directional residual
0:24

This guy built an asynchronous complete-set bot and made +$111,945 on Polymarket with a 50% win rate I analyzed its trades and found that its main strategy is based on gradually accumulating both sides of the same market In 88.76% of markets, it bought both Up and Down It looks something like this: > First, the bot accumulates one side > After the underlying asset moves, it starts buying the opposite outcome > Then it switches between both sides several times as the market reprices > This way, it tries to build a position where Up + Down < $1 The average cost of these complete sets is 98.69c, which gives an edge of about 1.31c But this is not pure arbitrage. Part of its inventory remains directional, with the side determined by its model’s signal Its Polymarket nickname: norm1e69 The main edge of this trading bot comes from switching between both outcomes to build complete sets below $1, while keeping the unpaired inventory as a directional residual

VALIX

17,859 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $18.69 Result: +$88,641 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a passive maker grid, asynchronous accumulation, and a directional residual: 1. Places BUY limit orders across a fixed price grid It provides liquidity at multiple price levels in advance and waits for the orders to fill 2. Accumulates the opposite outcome as the market moves It bought both Up and Down in 63.6% of markets Orders on one side fill first. Once the market reprices, orders on the opposite side start filling Within each market, it switches between Up and Down a median of 2 times 3. Keeps part of its inventory directional After pairing both sides, a directional residual remains. The size of this residual becomes the main source of PnL In markets where it bought both sides, the outcome with the larger inventory won 53.7% of the time Its Polymarket account: 98euf98a Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The bot’s main edge comes from a two-part strategy: matched Up/Down positions reduce exposure, while the remaining directional residual drives most of its PnL
0:23

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $18.69 Result: +$88,641 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a passive maker grid, asynchronous accumulation, and a directional residual: 1. Places BUY limit orders across a fixed price grid It provides liquidity at multiple price levels in advance and waits for the orders to fill 2. Accumulates the opposite outcome as the market moves It bought both Up and Down in 63.6% of markets Orders on one side fill first. Once the market reprices, orders on the opposite side start filling Within each market, it switches between Up and Down a median of 2 times 3. Keeps part of its inventory directional After pairing both sides, a directional residual remains. The size of this residual becomes the main source of PnL In markets where it bought both sides, the outcome with the larger inventory won 53.7% of the time Its Polymarket account: 98euf98a Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The bot’s main edge comes from a two-part strategy: matched Up/Down positions reduce exposure, while the remaining directional residual drives most of its PnL

VALIX

44,860 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23.59 Result: +$246,578 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using dynamic hedging and a directional residual: 1. First buys the outcome its model considers underpriced It continuously estimates the fair probabilities of Up and Down and compares them with prices on Polymarket The bot builds a position whenever it detects a mispricing 2. Buys the opposite side when the signal changes If the underlying asset reverses, it does not close its initial position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome It bought both sides in 90% of markets 3. Turns part of the position into complete sets below $1 In two-sided markets, the median combined cost of Up and Down is 94.5c But this is not pure arbitrage The median inventory imbalance is 40%, so after pairing both sides, the algorithm is left with a directional residual Its Polymarket account: pspspsps5 You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from continuously shifting directional exposure as its fair probability estimates change, while purchases of the opposite outcome function either as a hedge or as part of a complete set
0:27

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23.59 Result: +$246,578 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using dynamic hedging and a directional residual: 1. First buys the outcome its model considers underpriced It continuously estimates the fair probabilities of Up and Down and compares them with prices on Polymarket The bot builds a position whenever it detects a mispricing 2. Buys the opposite side when the signal changes If the underlying asset reverses, it does not close its initial position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome It bought both sides in 90% of markets 3. Turns part of the position into complete sets below $1 In two-sided markets, the median combined cost of Up and Down is 94.5c But this is not pure arbitrage The median inventory imbalance is 40%, so after pairing both sides, the algorithm is left with a directional residual Its Polymarket account: pspspsps5 You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from continuously shifting directional exposure as its fair probability estimates change, while purchases of the opposite outcome function either as a hedge or as part of a complete set

VALIX

78,946 görüntüleme • 28 gün önce

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $34.90 Result: +$129,827 Nearly 99% of its volume comes from 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets, where it combines asynchronous pairing, MERGE, and a directional residual: 1. Accumulates both sides of the same market It bought both Up and Down in 79.6% of markets. The median gap between its first purchases of of the two outcomes is 8 seconds It uses price movements within each market to buy both sides at different times and prices 2. Frees up capital through MERGE It merges an equal number of shares from each side of the market For example: 100 Up + 80 Down 80 Up + 80 Down -> MERGE -> $80 If those matched pairs cost less than $1 each, the difference becomes a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves MERGE immediately frees up capital so it can be used again 3. Holds unpaired inventory until resolution In the example above, 20 Up shares remain after the MERGE This portion is unhedged and acts as a directional residual Its final pnl therefore depends on the edge from matched pairs, how efficiently it reuses capital, and the performance of its directional residual Its Polymarket account: flippingsharks Stats: > Trades per active hour: 73.18 > Average trade size: $34.90 > Win rate: 50.33% The bot’s main edge comes from a BUY -> pairing -> MERGE cycle: merging matched inventory frees up capital and locks in the edge on pairs bought for less than $1, while the unpaired portion stays directional until resolution
0:29

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $34.90 Result: +$129,827 Nearly 99% of its volume comes from 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets, where it combines asynchronous pairing, MERGE, and a directional residual: 1. Accumulates both sides of the same market It bought both Up and Down in 79.6% of markets. The median gap between its first purchases of of the two outcomes is 8 seconds It uses price movements within each market to buy both sides at different times and prices 2. Frees up capital through MERGE It merges an equal number of shares from each side of the market For example: 100 Up + 80 Down 80 Up + 80 Down -> MERGE -> $80 If those matched pairs cost less than $1 each, the difference becomes a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves MERGE immediately frees up capital so it can be used again 3. Holds unpaired inventory until resolution In the example above, 20 Up shares remain after the MERGE This portion is unhedged and acts as a directional residual Its final pnl therefore depends on the edge from matched pairs, how efficiently it reuses capital, and the performance of its directional residual Its Polymarket account: flippingsharks Stats: > Trades per active hour: 73.18 > Average trade size: $34.90 > Win rate: 50.33% The bot’s main edge comes from a BUY -> pairing -> MERGE cycle: merging matched inventory frees up capital and locks in the edge on pairs bought for less than $1, while the unpaired portion stays directional until resolution

VALIX

22,698 görüntüleme • 22 gün önce

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $60 Result: +$222,374 Its bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets through a hybrid of directional trading and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for directional edge through its own fair probability It gets data on the underlying asset from external sources and compares it with the price on Polymarket Its model includes momentum, acceleration, volatility, order-flow imbalance, and time to resolution If it sees an edge, it starts building a position and increases it while the signal remains active 2. When the signal changes, it hedges the position with the opposite outcome If the price movement reverses, the algorithm starts buying the other side This reduces net exposure while also using new price moves to accumulate the second side If it can buy cheap enough, part of the inventory turns into a complete set where Up + Down costs less than $1 3. It keeps a large directional residual In two-sided markets, the median size of the smaller side is only around 36% of the larger side The hedge covers only part of the position, while the main remainder continues working in the direction of its model’s signal His Polymarket nickname: antsaslyku Stats: > Trades / active hour: 132.3 > Average trade: $60.02 > Win Rate: 55% This guy’s main edge is built on a combination of two mechanics: it tries to identify the stronger outcome before the market, and when the signal changes, it turns part of the position into a hedge or a cheap complete set
0:30

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $60 Result: +$222,374 Its bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets through a hybrid of directional trading and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for directional edge through its own fair probability It gets data on the underlying asset from external sources and compares it with the price on Polymarket Its model includes momentum, acceleration, volatility, order-flow imbalance, and time to resolution If it sees an edge, it starts building a position and increases it while the signal remains active 2. When the signal changes, it hedges the position with the opposite outcome If the price movement reverses, the algorithm starts buying the other side This reduces net exposure while also using new price moves to accumulate the second side If it can buy cheap enough, part of the inventory turns into a complete set where Up + Down costs less than $1 3. It keeps a large directional residual In two-sided markets, the median size of the smaller side is only around 36% of the larger side The hedge covers only part of the position, while the main remainder continues working in the direction of its model’s signal His Polymarket nickname: antsaslyku Stats: > Trades / active hour: 132.3 > Average trade: $60.02 > Win Rate: 55% This guy’s main edge is built on a combination of two mechanics: it tries to identify the stronger outcome before the market, and when the signal changes, it turns part of the position into a hedge or a cheap complete set

VALIX

12,905 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move
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This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move

VALIX

371,614 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket that trades markets with an average trade size of $60 Result: +$254,000 His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and volatility harvesting: 1. It finds mispricing using its own model It receives spot/perp data for the underlying asset and constantly compares it with prices on Polymarket The model also analyzes volatility, momentum, acceleration, and order-flow imbalance, then buys when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal reverses, it starts accumulating the opposite side as a hedge If the underlying asset changes direction, it starts buying the opposite outcome. This reduces its net directional exposure If both sides can be bought cheaply enough, part of the position turns into complete sets His Polymarket nickname: antsaslyku Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from identifying the stronger outcome and properly managing its open positions
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket that trades markets with an average trade size of $60 Result: +$254,000 His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and volatility harvesting: 1. It finds mispricing using its own model It receives spot/perp data for the underlying asset and constantly compares it with prices on Polymarket The model also analyzes volatility, momentum, acceleration, and order-flow imbalance, then buys when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal reverses, it starts accumulating the opposite side as a hedge If the underlying asset changes direction, it starts buying the opposite outcome. This reduces its net directional exposure If both sides can be bought cheaply enough, part of the position turns into complete sets His Polymarket nickname: antsaslyku Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from identifying the stronger outcome and properly managing its open positions

VALIX

28,194 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $60 and a 55% win rate Result: +$311,667 His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a combination of directional trading and dynamic hedging: 1. Looks for mispricing using its model For each market, it records the reference price and uses fast spot/perp feeds to track the underlying asset Its model continuously recalculates outcome probabilities based on price relative to the reference, momentum, acceleration, volatility, time to resolution, and order flow Its signal looks like this: > Model Edge = p_model(outcome) - PM price For example: > p_model(Up) = 67c > Current Up price = 60c Model Edge = 7c As long as this gap remains, it keeps buying that side 2. Uses the opposite outcome to adjust its inventory If the market reverses and its fair probability estimate shifts toward the other side, it often buys the opposite outcome This reduces net exposure and, at favorable prices, can turn part of the position into complete sets costing less than $1 each Matched inventory acts as a hedge, while the remainder stays directional Its Polymarket account: antsaslyku The algorithm uses external price feeds to continuously update its fair probability estimates. Buying the opposite outcome lets it hedge its inventory while continuing to follow its directional signal
0:28

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $60 and a 55% win rate Result: +$311,667 His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a combination of directional trading and dynamic hedging: 1. Looks for mispricing using its model For each market, it records the reference price and uses fast spot/perp feeds to track the underlying asset Its model continuously recalculates outcome probabilities based on price relative to the reference, momentum, acceleration, volatility, time to resolution, and order flow Its signal looks like this: > Model Edge = p_model(outcome) - PM price For example: > p_model(Up) = 67c > Current Up price = 60c Model Edge = 7c As long as this gap remains, it keeps buying that side 2. Uses the opposite outcome to adjust its inventory If the market reverses and its fair probability estimate shifts toward the other side, it often buys the opposite outcome This reduces net exposure and, at favorable prices, can turn part of the position into complete sets costing less than $1 each Matched inventory acts as a hedge, while the remainder stays directional Its Polymarket account: antsaslyku The algorithm uses external price feeds to continuously update its fair probability estimates. Buying the opposite outcome lets it hedge its inventory while continuing to follow its directional signal

VALIX

21,850 görüntüleme • 16 gün önce

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it
0:26

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it

VALIX

27,231 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

This guy built a late-resolution bot on Polymarket and made $98,842 His algorithm almost always waits until the final seconds of 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets before building a directional position: 1. Monitors the market for most of the trading window and enters near resolution 98.2% of its purchases occur in the final minute The median first entry occurs 56 seconds before the market ends For the first four minutes, it tracks BTC’s price movements. It then starts buying its chosen outcome in small amounts 2. Buys the more likely outcome if it still considers it undervalued 89.8% of its fills are at 50c+ More than half of its purchases are at 80c+, and those trades account for 65.9% of its total volume 3. Uses the opposite outcome to adjust net exposure It bought both sides in 29.55% of markets If it holds 100 Up shares and buys 40 Down shares, part of the position becomes hedged, while 60 Up shares remain directional If it then buys another 140 Down shares, its original Up position is fully hedged, and the directional residual shifts to Down Buying the opposite outcome lets it reduce or fully reverse its directional exposure Its Polymarket account: NIULAI4 Stats: > Trades per active hour: 53.89 > Average trade size: $26.56 > Win rate: 81.42% NIULAI4’s main edge comes from late-entry probability trading: it waits for a stronger BTC signal near the end of the market, buys the undervalued outcome, and uses the opposite side to rapidly adjust its exposure if conditions change
0:27

This guy built a late-resolution bot on Polymarket and made $98,842 His algorithm almost always waits until the final seconds of 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets before building a directional position: 1. Monitors the market for most of the trading window and enters near resolution 98.2% of its purchases occur in the final minute The median first entry occurs 56 seconds before the market ends For the first four minutes, it tracks BTC’s price movements. It then starts buying its chosen outcome in small amounts 2. Buys the more likely outcome if it still considers it undervalued 89.8% of its fills are at 50c+ More than half of its purchases are at 80c+, and those trades account for 65.9% of its total volume 3. Uses the opposite outcome to adjust net exposure It bought both sides in 29.55% of markets If it holds 100 Up shares and buys 40 Down shares, part of the position becomes hedged, while 60 Up shares remain directional If it then buys another 140 Down shares, its original Up position is fully hedged, and the directional residual shifts to Down Buying the opposite outcome lets it reduce or fully reverse its directional exposure Its Polymarket account: NIULAI4 Stats: > Trades per active hour: 53.89 > Average trade size: $26.56 > Win rate: 81.42% NIULAI4’s main edge comes from late-entry probability trading: it waits for a stronger BTC signal near the end of the market, buys the undervalued outcome, and uses the opposite side to rapidly adjust its exposure if conditions change

VALIX

161,286 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $96,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $3 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid strategy that combines two-sided market making, arbitrage, and directional trading His strategy has five steps: 1. Monitors multiple crypto markets 2. Calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 3. Places orders at prices that keep the combined cost of Up + Down below $1 4. Manages the unhedged portion of the position 5. Keeps directional exposure when its model identifies one outcome as undervalued This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a small edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his deposit
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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $96,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $3 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid strategy that combines two-sided market making, arbitrage, and directional trading His strategy has five steps: 1. Monitors multiple crypto markets 2. Calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 3. Places orders at prices that keep the combined cost of Up + Down below $1 4. Manages the unhedged portion of the position 5. Keeps directional exposure when its model identifies one outcome as undervalued This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a small edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his deposit

VALIX

86,634 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

This guy gave Grok Bot access to Polymarket and it made $2,484 a day The result is already +$250,904 PnL while averaging only $34 per trade and repeating the same Temporal Arb setup 27 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets 6 AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. They hunt for Up + Down 2¢ locked edge on every complete set 2. The model decides what to buy next and what to leave directional After every BTC move, the agents update fair probability through Bayes: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) - If one side trades below its calculated probability, the bot adds it As the opposite side becomes attractive, it builds complete sets while keeping any remaining exposure directional only while the model still sees an edge This trader’s Polymarket account: almach Most profitable trades: $707 → $2,490 (+$1,782) $1,478 → $3,179 (+$1,701) $408 → $2,011 (+$1,602) The bot keeps repeating the same cycle by using short term BTC volatility to build complete sets below 100¢ while preserving directional exposure when its model still sees an edge
0:25

This guy gave Grok Bot access to Polymarket and it made $2,484 a day The result is already +$250,904 PnL while averaging only $34 per trade and repeating the same Temporal Arb setup 27 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets 6 AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. They hunt for Up + Down 2¢ locked edge on every complete set 2. The model decides what to buy next and what to leave directional After every BTC move, the agents update fair probability through Bayes: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) - If one side trades below its calculated probability, the bot adds it As the opposite side becomes attractive, it builds complete sets while keeping any remaining exposure directional only while the model still sees an edge This trader’s Polymarket account: almach Most profitable trades: $707 → $2,490 (+$1,782) $1,478 → $3,179 (+$1,701) $408 → $2,011 (+$1,602) The bot keeps repeating the same cycle by using short term BTC volatility to build complete sets below 100¢ while preserving directional exposure when its model still sees an edge

Daniro

24,221 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce